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The Surge and The Slump
For the past 3 years, there has been an uptick in military casualties (and all casualties) during the “holy” month of Ramadan. Rather than a Ramadan spike, this year there is a Ramadan slump (H/T Little Green Footballs)
This year, for the first time since our troops have been in Iraq, the Ramadan Spike has failed to materialize. Few events in Iraq were as predictable as the yearly rise in causalities it signified. In 2004, 2005, and 2006, shortly before and during the autumn months in which Ramadan has recently occurred, violence against US forces escalated significantly.
Not this year.
The missing Ramadan Spike is an immutable sign that Iraq has entered a new phase. What seemed to be an unstoppable cycle of violence has diminished. Ramadan began either on September 12th or 13th of 2007, depending on your source. As of this writing Ramadan is more than halfway over. Not only has the monthly U.S. death toll decreased since August (barring any spectacular attacks or accidents before the end of the month) but within the month the daily death toll appears to have actually slowed down over Ramadan.
This report shows that the civilian death toll has plummeted as well: down by 50%–from 1,773 to 884.
What an amazing coincidence: as the coalition forces have surged, violence has dropped.
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