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Al Qaeda Has No Future in Iraq
Safa Hussein, a former brigadier general in the Iraqi Air Force and current member of the Iraqi National Security Council wrote last week that al Qaeda is slowly finding that it has no future in Iraq.
Citing the Anbar Awakening, Hussein (no known relation to Saddam) believes there are seveal reasons for the turnaround there and why it serves as a model for the rest of Iraq:
After months of clashes, it was clear that Al-Qaeda in Iraq was losing the battle in Anbar. Peace and stability were brought back to the province in almost no time. The success in Anbar has stimulated other tribes and groups to challenge and fight Al-Qaeda in Iraq in other parts of Iraq. Local tribes and insurgent groups like the Islamic Army and the 1920s Brigades in Sunni-dominated Baghdad districts, Salaheddin Province and Diyala Province entered the fight against Al-Qaeda in Iraq. By the fall of 2007, it was clear that there was a significant shift in the Sunni community position against Al-Qaeda in Iraq.
There are many reasons behind this shift. First, Iraqi culture and Islamic practice do not tolerate Al-Qaeda in Iraq’s extremism and its narrow interpretation of Islam. True, at one point some distressed Sunnis welcomed Al-Qaeda in Iraq, but it was only a matter of months before they concluded that it was better to participate in a Shiite-dominated government than to be under Al-Qaeda in Iraq control.
Second, Al-Qaeda in Iraq’s strategy is to incite sectarian violence in Iraq. The aftermath of the Samarra Golden Mosque blast in 2006 was ironic. Al-Qaeda in Iraq succeeded in that attack to provoke the Shiite Mehdi Army militia. But the latter’s retaliation attacks proved to the Sunnis that although Al-Qaeda in Iraq could attack Shiites it could not protect the Sunnis from Shiite counterattacks. Third, the sectarian attacks and counterattacks incited by Al-Qaeda in Iraq caused the Sunni areas to become isolated from Shiite areas, thereby damaging the Sunni economy. And lastly, military operations in Al-Qaeda in Iraq-controlled areas caused huge losses in property and nearly brought daily life to a halt.
Thus, the first conclusion that comes from the Anbar success against Al-Qaeda in Iraq is that the latter has no future in Iraq. Yes, it can exploit the presence of foreign troops and sectarian strife to gain support in some areas. Further, it can and deliberately has “engineered” sectarian strife to increase its support. Yet it cannot sustain itself for long in Iraqi society.
He then went on to cite the ascendancy of men like Sheik Sattar not knowing that within a week of the publication of his op-ed, Sattar would be killed by an al Qaeda bomb. But Sattar was not unique. He merely represented a second generation of Iraqi leaders who are willing to set aside tribal differences and work to free Iraq from the boot of the terrorists.