“Hints” of Progress?

The NYT’s Michael Gordon writes of “Hints of Progress” in The Surge:

Hints of Progress, and Questions, in Iraq Data
by Michael Gordon

WASHINGTON, Sept. 7 — For months, proponents and critics of the Bush administration’s strategy in Iraq have pointed to conflicting indicators about whether it has produced progress. The figures that have emerged in recent government reports have seemingly provided something for everyone.

The most comprehensive and up-to-date military statistics show that American forces have made some headway toward a crucial goal of protecting the Iraqi population. Data on car bombs, suicide attacks, civilian casualties and other measures of the bloodshed in Iraq indicate that violence has been on the decline, though the levels generally remain higher than in 2004 and 2005.

Let me interrupt this report with a “hint” of an observation. “Data on CAR BOMBS, SUICIDE ATTACKS, CIVILIAN CASUALTIES and OTHER MEASURES OF THE BLOODSHED in Iraq indicate that VIOLENCE HAS BEEN ON THE DECLINE” in Iraq.

Hmmmm. If these are “hints of progress” then I wonder what the NYT would classify as uncontroverted and convincing evidence of progress.

But lest we think this is only the American military’s spin on progress, the article continues:

The American military is not the only organization reporting that violence in Iraq has dropped. Iraqi government statistics on wounded and dead civilians generally run somewhat higher . . .[but] the trend is similar: both the American and the Iraqi reports note a roughly 50 percent drop in the number of civilians who have been killed since the end of 2006. According to Iraqi government data, the number of civilians nationwide who died as a result of violent causes dropped to about 2,000 in August from about 4,000 in December 2006. American military statistics shows that the number of civilian deaths declined to 1,582 in August from 2,989 in December.

“All major categories of violence have been trending downward over the course of the year, according to most primary data sources, be they American, Iraqi or nongovernmental,” said Michael O’Hanlon, the senior author of the Iraq Index, a database on Iraq maintained by the Brookings Institution. “This includes the overall civilian fatality count from all violent causes.”

Excuse the interruption. Let me restate: the Iraqi government confirms that there has been a 50 PERCENT DROP IN THE NUMBER OF CIVILIANS WHO HAVE BEEN KILLED SINCE THE END OF 2006. ALL MAJOR CATEGORIES OF VIOLENCE HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD says Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institutution (which is not a right-wing interest group.)

These are “hints” of progress?

Well, what about left-leaning groups like “Iraq Body Count” out of the confused Great Britain? Without identifying the group or its biases, the article turns to their numbers:

Iraq Body Count, a British-based nongovernmental group that monitors civilian deaths, notes that the number of civilians who were killed by shootings, executions and bombs has declined from January through July. The organization says its August figures are not yet available. Despite the reduction, the group notes that violence still runs high.

“Levels of violence reached an all-time high in the last six months of 2006,” the British organization said in a recent analysis on the “surge” of American forces in Baghdad. “Only in comparison to that could the first half of 2007 be regarded as an improvement.”

Hints of progress? Here is a leftist organization which believes that “war is an abomination” keeping track of civilian deaths (without noting, by the way, that the largest civilian attacks are being carried out by al Qaeda) so as to turn popular opinion against the war, and they are confirming that CIVILIANS KILLED BY SHOOTINGS, EXECUTIONS AND BOMBS HAVE DECLINED FROM JANUARY THROUGH JULY.

That is just a hint?

The NYT then notes that with The Surge, the Bush administration hoped that the additional security would provide Iraqi leaders with a breathing space to move ahead with their program of political reconciliation. But, alas, the Times concludes, “That has not happened.”

In the next breath, the Times states

But the infusion of more American troops encouraged Sunni tribes, including former insurgents, to align themselves with American forces, providing American troops with additional allies in their struggle to establish order in Iraq.

Okay, so we envisioned that there would be top-down reconciliation but instead there has been bottom-up reconciliation: THE INFUSION OF MORE AMERICAN TROOPS ENCOURAGED SUNNI TRIBES, INCLUDING FORMER INSURGENTS, TO ALIGN THEMSELVES WITH AMERICAN FORCES.

What? Former insurgents have turned on al Qaeda and have aligned themselves with us?

Hints of progress?

The “story” continues:

To measure the military progress, the American command has gathered an array of statistics. The results have been uneven. The new alliance with Sunni tribes in Anbar Province led to a dramatic reduction in violence there, but attacks in Nineweh Province in northern Iraq have increased somewhat as Qaeda militants have shifted their operations there.

Without question, al Qaeda has been ROUTED IN ANBAR RESULTING IN A DRAMATIC REDUCTION IN VIOLENCE THERE.

Hints of progress?

The routing of al Qaeda in Anbar has driven them to northern Iraq. Well, guess what is happening now in northern Iraq? (Hints of progress.)

Back to more hints from the NYT article:

Nonetheless, some trends are down. The number of car bombs in Baghdad is an important measure, since many are directed at civilians and the overarching American goal is to break the cycle of internecine violence. In June, July and August of 2006, the average monthly number of car bombs in the Baghdad metropolitan area was 42. In 2007, however, the average for the same three-month period was 23, the same number as in 2005.

The number of deaths in sectarian violence is also a key indicator. According to the American military count, the August total for the 10 security districts in Baghdad was 321, down from 1,621 in December when such attacks were at a high.

Hints? CAR BOMBS IN BAGHDAD ARE A KEY MEASURE. IN JUNE, JULY, AND AUGUST OF 2006 THE AVERAGE WAS 42 PER MONTH. THAT HAS BEEN CUT IN HALF.

THE NUMBER OF SECTARIAN DEATHS IS ANOTHER KEY INDICATOR. IN 10 KEY BAGHDAD DISTRICTS THE NUMBER IN DECEMBER 2006, WAS 1,621. LAST MONTH (AUGUST 2007) THE NUMBER WAS JUST 321.

Hints of progress?

If these are only “hints” of progress, then what would real signs of progress be?

A drop in troop deaths?

The enemy itself admitting to fewer attacks?

Muqtada al-Sadr disbanding his rogue army?

Iraq’s national leaders coming together?

Decimating al Qaeda’s leadership?

Iraqi Men “Turning out in Droves” to enlist in the Iraqi army?

Oh, yeah . . . all these things have happened.

Thanks to The Surge!